Should Greece Leave The Euro Essay Checker

A statue of Greek philosopher Socrates is seen outside the Athens Academy. (Reuters/John Kolesidis)

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Most economists now agree: Imposing austerity in a time of recession does not work. It only inhibits growth and deepens the recession.

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Yet last week, the troika—the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund—forced Greece to accept another round of austerity that requires, among other things, €50 billion in government assets to be collected into a privatization fund and the reversal of laws passed earlier this year that were intended to ease conditions for a desperate population. In return, the country will receive a €86 billion bailout. In the words of recently resigned finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, the latest deal is “absolutely impossible, totally non-viable, and toxic.”

The IMF itself, which now advocates debt restructuring, knows that as long as its economy is shrinking, Greece will never be able to repay its debts. In the meantime, the troika has stripped the last vestige of sovereignty from the Greek government.

Many economists and commentators, as well as some political and economic leaders, continue to call for Greece’s exit, or “Grexit,” from the eurozone, arguing that while the country would suffer an initial shock, currency devaluation after leaving the euro would eventually allow a return to growth and a healthy economy. But the voices are far from united. Here’s a look at the pros and cons.

The Gains From Grexit

First and foremost, Greece will regain its sovereignty. As negotiation after negotiation has shown, the Greek government now has little control over its economic policy, which is left instead to the whims of class and institutional tensions across Europe. If it stays in the union, The Economistpoints out, Greece “will face painful budget cuts with no monetary flexibility and without the opportunity to devalue. Its debts will still be there, pending some future act of German magnanimity that may or may not be forthcoming.”

With Grexit, on the other hand, Greece will be able to make its own decisions about monetary policy. After all, “sovereign nations get to make sovereign decisions about their future,” as James Stavridis wrote for Foreign Policy. The government could use monetary policy to adjust for inflation and unemployment. The “new drachma,” devalued, could boost Greece’s ailing tourism industry, since it will be easy for people living under other currencies to vacation there. With a “velvet divorce” and break from the euro, the Greek government could push through budget cuts with autonomy and flexibility. Within a few years, GDP, at least according to some analyses, would resume an upward trajectory.

“Everyone knows that debt relief is not possible within the eurozone.” —Wolfgang Schäuble

Another benefit from Grexit would be debt relief. The Economist notes that, since exit would almost certainly bring with it default to creditors, Greece would be facing “a much smaller sovereign debt burden.” The New York Timesreports that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble “suggested that Greece would get its best shot at a substantial cut in its debt only if it was willing to give up membership in the European common currency,” since, Schäuble insists, “everyone knows that debt relief is not possible within the eurozone.”

Some hope that debt restructuring might play a role in the terms of exit. Syriza Member of Parliament Costas Lapavitsas argues that the ideal exit is a negotiated one, with the country receiving a 50 percent debt write-off by the monetary union. Under such a scheme, the ECB could protect the devaluation of the new currency, with maximum devaluation at 20 percent. More likely, though, is a contested, or non-negotiated, exit. Under those circumstances, Lapavitsas says, debt default would “open up a process of negotiated debt restructuring.” Either way, debt restructuring would have to happen with Grexit.

The Downside

The most probable immediate effect of an exit would be hyperinflation. The New York Timesspoke with Michalis Massourakis, the chief economist at trade group Hellenic Federation of Enterprises. With Grexit, Greece would have to start printing its new currency “with no end in sight.” With all this new money entering the market, he predicted, “This is going to end in hyperinflation.”

Though currency devaluation and hyperinflation are often written off as minor in the long run, analyst Ruben Segura-Cayuela disagreed in a roundtable on Grexit held by Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

In the short term, we expect the Greek economy to suffer an unprecedented contraction; in the long term, we would expect growth to surprise to the upside only if Greece implements the reforms that the country has not implemented so far, and which would have helped avoid Grexit in the first place.

In other words, a return to growth is far from guaranteed. Segura-Cayuela continued, “The Greek economy would suffer a GDP contraction of unprecedented magnitude, even by Greek standards. Just as an example, Argentina contracted 11 percent in the year after its default and devaluation. Moreover, inflation could increase to double digits.”

Moreover, currency devaluation in Greece, a country that is not export-driven, might do little to increase GDP. Instead, it could cause import prices to rise—raising the cost of living and making the recession even more brutal. The director of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, Guntram Wolff, wrote about the significance that Greece’s current account balance plays in predicting its future economic recovery:

In Ireland, Spain and Portugal, the largest part of the adjustment has come from an increase in exports. All three countries have therefore managed to change their production structures and substantially increase exports. This is a desirable and healthy way of adjusting, which also shows that it was not primarily a demand compression that drove the external adjustment in these three countries….

Greece stands out as an outlier in external adjustment. Its adjustment was almost exclusively driven by a contraction in imports while exports have only very recently been positive.

In other words, the turnarounds in other European countries (still only partial) may not apply to a Greece that leaves the euro. With a shrinking current account and an import-based economy, the recession predicted by financial leaders could be long-lasting.

It does not help that Greece’s former finance minister lacks faith in his country’s ability to survive, or even carry out, a Grexit. “I’m not sure we would manage it,” Yanis Varoufakis said in an interview with the New Statesman, “because managing the collapse of a monetary union takes a great deal of expertise, and I’m not sure we have it here in Greece without the help of outsiders.”

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Right now, Greece is suffering from a massive liquidity shortage. The only capital flow comes from the European Central Bank, and the ECB can’t afford—or at least is unwilling—to inject much more into the country’s economy. If the government cannot pay its debts, The Economist notes, “the government will soon start paying its bills with IOUs that, in time, will become a parallel currency.”

If this is the first step to a new currency, it would force Greece to face a harsh reality it might not be ready to confront. How much money would it print, and how would it avoid inflation? Would it peg the currency against another—and how would it make this decision, given that its new currency would be starting at such a devalued level?

In addition, Grexit could lead to political unrest. As The Economist puts it:

The road would be rocky. The economy is already facing a nasty economic end to 2015, thanks to the effect of the immediate crisis on tourism, investment and domestic consumption. Capital controls, financial instability and social unrest may accompany an exit.

Would right-wing nationalists fill the power vacuum? The Timespredicted they might, during a previous round of Grexit concerns. Unrest could undermine tourism and send the economy into an even deeper tailspin. Amid the furor over its latest capitulation to the troika, Syriza’s hold on power is already tenuous. Any move toward Grexit could force new elections, with unknown consequences.

The Greek leadership will have to face these two sides of a difficult decision over the course of the coming months. While European leader after European leader hints that Greece would be better off outside the eurozone, the political and economic consequences of exit carry high stakes and lack precedent. Until the experiment itself is carried out, there is only one thing Greece can rely on: the familiar failure of austerity and the circumstances under which its citizens survive today.

"Grexit" redirects here. For the software formerly known as GrexIt, see Hiver (software).

Not to be confused with Brexit.

This article needs to be updated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(July 2017)

A Greek withdrawal from the eurozone is a hypothetical scenario in which Greecewithdraws from the Eurozone, likely to allow for the country to deal with its government-debt crisis. As of March 2018[update], no such withdrawal has occurred, nor is one in prospect. This conjecture has been referred to as "Grexit", a portmanteau combining the English words "Greek" and "exit".[1][2][3][4][5][6] The term "Graccident" (accidental Grexit) was coined for the case that Greece exited the EU and the euro without intention. These terms first came into use in 2012 and have been revitalised at each of the bailouts made available to Greece since then.

Proponents of the proposal argue that leaving the euro and reintroducing the drachma would dramatically boost exports and tourism and while discouraging expensive imports and thereby give the Greek economy the possibility to recover and stand on its own feet.

Opponents argue that the proposal would impose excessive hardship on the Greek people, as the short-term effects would be a significant consumption and wealth reduction for the Greek population. This may cause civil unrest in Greece and harm the reputation of the eurozone. Additionally, it could cause Greece to align more with non-EU states.

Detailed Events[edit]

The term 'Grexit' was coined by the Citigroup economist Ebrahim Rahbari and was introduced by Rahbari and Citigroup's Global Chief Economist Willem H. Buiter on 6 February 2012.[1][2][3]

On 27 January 2015, two days after an early election of the Greek parliament, Alexis Tsipras, leader of the new Syriza ("Coalition of the Radical Left") party, formed a new government. He appointed Yanis Varoufakis as Minister of Finance, a particularly important post in view of the government debt crisis. During 2015 and 2016, the chance of a Grexit or even a 'Graccident' (accidental Grexit) in the near future was widely discussed.[7][8][9][10]

After the announcement of the bailout referendum on 27 June 2015 speculation rose. That day BBC News reported that "default appears inevitable",[11] though it later removed the online statement.[12] On 29 June 2015 it was announced that Greek banks would remain closed all week, cash withdrawals from banks would be limited to €60 per day, and international money transfers would be limited to urgent pre-approved commercial transfers.[13]

Background[edit]

IMF's projection[edit]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) admitted that its forecast about Greek economy was too optimistic: in 2010 it described Greece's first bailout programme as a holding operation that gave the eurozone time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members, but in 2012 the unemployment rate of Greece became about 25 percent, compared to IMF's projection of about 15 percent.[14] IMF conceded that it underestimated the damage that austerity programmes would do to the Greek economy,[15] adding that, in terms of Greece's debt, IMF should have considered a debt restructuring earlier.[14][16]

As can be seen from the Figure A, IMF's forecast in the 2010 standby agreement said that the Southern European country would start to grow in real terms after 2011.[16] But in fact the economy continued to shrink, and Greek real GDP in 2013 was about 76 percent of that in 2008.[17][18]

Dynamics[edit]

Financial dynamics[edit]

In mid-May 2012, the financial crisis in Greece and the impossibility of forming a new government after elections[19] led to strong speculation that Greece would leave the eurozone shortly.[20][21][22][23] This phenomenon had already become known as "Grexit".[24]

Economists who favour this approach to solve the Greek debt crisis argue that a default is unavoidable for Greece in the long term, and that a delay in organising an orderly default (by lending Greece more money throughout a few more years) would just wind up hurting EU lenders and neighbouring European countries even more.[25] Fiscal austerity or a euro exit is the alternative to accepting differentiated government bond yields within the Euro Area. If Greece remains in the euro while accepting higher bond yields, reflecting its high government deficit, then high interest rates would dampen demand, raise savings and slow the economy. An improved trade performance and less reliance on foreign capital would be the result.[citation needed]

The implementation of Grexit would have to occur "within days or even hours of the decision being made"[26][27] due to the high volatility that would result. It would have to be timed at one of the public holidays in Greece.[28]

International law dynamics[edit]

One US economist has argued that the legal grounds upon which the "troika," composed by the EU Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, has pursued the harsh macroeconomic adjustment plans imposed on Greece are shaky, claiming they infringe upon Greece's sovereignty and interfere in the internal affairs of an independent EU nation-state: "the overt infringements on Greek sovereignty we're witnessing today, with EU policy makers now double-checking all national data and carefully 'monitoring' the work of the Greek government sets a dangerous precedent."[29]

He argues that a withdrawal from the Eurozone would give the Greek government more room for maneuver to conduct public policies propitious for long-term growth and social equity.[29]

2012 Plan Z[edit]

"Plan Z" is the name given to a 2012 plan to enable Greece to withdraw from the eurozone in the event of Greek bank collapse.[30] It was drawn up in absolute secrecy by small teams totalling approximately two dozen officials at the EU Commission (Brussels), the European Central Bank (Frankfurt) and the IMF (Washington).[30] Those officials were headed by Jörg Asmussen (ECB), Thomas Wieser (Euro working group), Poul Thomsen (IMF) and Marco Buti (European Commission).[30] To prevent premature disclosure no single document was created, no emails were exchanged, and no Greek officials were informed.[30] The plan was based on the 2003 introduction of new dinars into Iraq by the Americans and would have required rebuilding the Greek economy and banking system ab initio, including isolating Greek banks by disconnecting them from the TARGET2 system, closing ATMs, and imposing capital and currency controls.[30]

Implementation[edit]

The prospect of Greece leaving the euro and dealing with a devalued drachma prompted many people to start withdrawing their euros from the country's banks.[31] In the nine months to March 2012 deposits in Greek banks had already fallen 13% to €160,000,000,000.[27]

A victory for anti-bailout lawmakers in the 17 June 2012 election would likely trigger an even bigger bank run, said Dimitris Mardas, associate professor of economics at the University of Thessaloniiki. Greek authorities, Mardas predicted, would respond by imposing controls on the movement of money for as long as it takes for the panic to subside.[31]

Against this plan, a political initiative, the so-called Menoume Europi was founded in 2012 by students in Oxford University,[32] and it spread among Greek students in other European universities. The first demonstration took place in Athens, Syntagma Square in June 2012 in between two major elections that brought to the country political instability and financial insecurity.

A Grexit, assuming that it coincided with adoption of a new currency, would require preparation, for example with capacity for banknote stamping or printing a stock of new banknotes. However, information leaking out on such preparations might lead to negative dynamic effects, like bank runs. Conversely, leaving the Eurozone, but retaining the Euro as de facto currency, would avoid the practical issues and relieve the country of the burden of its Eurozone responsibilities.[citation needed]

In the event of a new currency being introduced, all banks would close for several days to allow old (Euro) banknotes to be stamped to denote that they were now drachmas, and/or a newly printed currency to be distributed to bank branches for distribution to the public when banks reopened. The British money printing company De La Rue was, according to rumours on 18 May 2012, preparing to print new drachma notes based on old moulds, which De La Rue refused to confirm.[27] The typical time between an order for a new currency being placed and the delivery of the banknotes is about six months.[33]

Wolfson Economics Prize[edit]

In July 2012, the Wolfson Economics Prize, a prize for the "best proposal for a country to leave the European Monetary Union", was awarded to a Capital Economics team led by Roger Bootle, for their submission titled "Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide."[34] The winning proposal argued that a member wishing to exit should introduce a new currency and default on a large part of its debts. The net effect, the proposal claimed, would be positive for growth and prosperity. It also called for keeping the euro for small transactions and for a short period of time after the exit from the eurozone, along with a strict regime of inflation-targeting and tough fiscal rules monitored by "independent experts".

The Roger Bootle/Capital Economics plan also suggested that "key officials" should meet "in secret" one month before the exit is publicly announced, and that eurozone partners and international organisations should be informed "three days before". The judges of the Wolfson Economics Prize found that the winning plan was the "most credible solution" to the question of a member state leaving the eurozone.

[edit]

On 29 May 2012 the National Bank of Greece (not to be confused with the central bank, the Bank of Greece) warned that "[a]n exit from the euro would lead to a significant decline in the living standards of Greek citizens." According to the announcement, per capita income would fall by 55%, the new national currency would depreciate by 65% vis-à-vis the euro, and the recession would deepen to 22%. Furthermore, unemployment would rise from its current 22% to 34% of the work force, and inflation, which was then at 2%, would soar to 30%.[35]

According to the Greek think-tank Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), a new drachma would lose half or more of its value relative to the euro.[31] This would drive up inflation, and reduce the purchasing power of the average Greek. At the same time, the country's economic output would drop, putting more people out of work where one in five is already unemployed. The prices of imported goods would skyrocket, putting them out of reach for many.[31]

Analyst Vangelis Agapitos estimated that inflation under the new drachma would quickly reach 40 to 50 per cent to catch up with the fall in the new currency's value.[31] To stop the falling value of the drachma, interest rates would have to be increased to as high as 30 to 40 per cent, according to Agapitos.[31] People would then be unable to pay off their loans and mortgages and the country's banks would have to be nationalised to stop them from going under, he predicted.[31]

IOBE head of research Aggelos Tsakanikas foresaw an increase in crime as a consequence of a Grexit, as people struggled to pay bills. "We won’t see tanks in the streets and violence, we won’t see people starving in the streets, but crime could very well rise".[31]

Political opinion[edit]

The centre-right New Democracy party has accused the leftist SYRIZA of supporting withdrawal from the euro. However, SYRIZA's leader, Alexis Tsipras, has stated that Greece should not leave the eurozone and return to the drachma because "...we will have poor people, who have drachmas, and rich people, who will buy everything with euros."[36] Past opinion polling had shown that generally most Greeks favored keeping the euro.[37]

Of all the political parties which won seats in the parliamentary election in May 2012, the CommunistKKE expressed support for leaving both the euro and the European Union.[38] However, its General Secretary, Dimitris Koutsoumpas, pondered: "The exit from the EU and the euro will be hazardous, a blind alley unless it is combined with a concrete plan, a programme for the economy and society, with a new organization of society, i.e. a socialist society with the socialization of the concentrated means of production, unilateral cancelation of the debt, working class and people's power."[39]

Golden Dawn is also staunchly Eurosceptic, opposing Greece's participation in the European Union and the eurozone.[40][41]

On 21 August 2015, 25 MPs from SYRIZA split from the party and formed Popular Unity, which fully supports leaving the euro.[42] In the September 2015 Greek legislative election, the party won 2.8% of the popular vote, winning no seats.

Both the Greek government and the EU favour Greece staying within the Euro and believe this to be possible. However, some commentators believe an exit is likely. In February 2015, the former head of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, said "it is just a matter of time" for Greece to withdraw from the eurozone,[43] and former United KingdomChancellor of the ExchequerKenneth Clarke described it as inevitable.[44]

A leaked document revealed that, during informal discussions with one of the European leaders, then UK Prime Minister David Cameron suggested that Greece might be better off if it exited the eurozone. British officials declined to make their comments on the leaked document.[45]

Economic criticism[edit]

Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute, accused IMF and EU of basing their negotiation position on unrealistic assumptions. As Koo pointed out, IMF's argument was that if the austerity programme had been implemented as assumed, no further debt relief would have been needed under 2012's framework.[46] The EU's argument was that Greece encountered a difficult situation in 2015 because it delayed implementation of structural reforms. Koo said that the argument was highly unrealistic because structural reforms do not work in a short run, adding that the US did not benefit from the Reaganomics structural reforms during Reagan's era.[46] After publishing documents which admit that the southern European country needs debt relief and a moratorium on debt repayment for 30 years,[47] the IMF was only "slowly beginning to understand" the Greek economy, said Koo.[46]

2015 Grexit speculation[edit]

In January 2015, speculation about a Greek exit from the eurozone was revived when Michael Fuchs (de), deputy leader of the center-right CDU/CSU faction in the German Bundestag, was quoted on 31 December 2014: "The time when we had to rescue Greece is over. There is no more blackmail potential. Greece is not systemically relevant for the euro." A following article in the weekly Spiegel citing sources from Wolfgang Schäuble's ministry of finance further spurred these speculations. Both German and international media widely interpreted this as the Merkel government tacitly warning Greek voters from voting for SYRIZA in the upcoming legislative election of 25 January 2015.[48]

Germany's largest selling tabloid, the right-wing populistBild, raised further anger when it compared Greece to an unfair footballer: "What happens to a footballer who breaks the rules and does a crude foul? – He leaves the pitch. He is sent off as a punishment. No question."[49]

The German government's interference in the January 2015 elections in Greece was strongly criticized by leaders of European Parliament groups including Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the liberal ALDE and the Greens/EFA group, when S&D president Gianni Pittella said, "German right-wing forces trying to act like a sheriff in Greece or any other member states is not only unacceptable but above all wrong."[50] It has also been criticized by the German opposition party The Greens', with its speaker Simone Peter calling the debate over a Grexit "highly irresponsible".[49]

Economists of German Commerzbank said that preventing a Greek exit was still desirable for Germany, since a Greek exit would wipe out billions of euros in European taxpayer money, and "it would be much easier politically to renegotiate a compromise with Greece, albeit a lame one, and thus maintain the fiction that Greece will pay back its loans at some point in time."[51]

FTSE "considers Grexit following the election to be highly unlikely...".[52]

On 9 February, UK Prime Minister David Cameron chaired a meeting to discuss any possible ramifications in the event of an exit.[53] According to a Bloomberg report George Osborne said at the meeting of the G-20 finance ministers in Istanbul: "A Greek exit from the euro would be very difficult for the world economy and potentially very damaging for the European economy."[54]

In February 2015, the Russian government stated that it would offer Greece aid but would only provide it in rubles.[55]

Kathimerini reported that after 16 February Eurogroup talks Commerzbank AG increased the risk of Greece exiting the euro to 50%.[56] The expression used by Time for these talks is "Greece and the Euro Zone dance on the precipice".[57]

After an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers (20 February 2015), European leaders agreed to extend Greece’s bailout for further four months.[58]

By late June 2015 negotiations on a deal had collapsed, and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum for 5 July on the revised proposals from the IMF and the EU, which he said that his government would campaign against. The referendum was defeated by a margin of 61% to 39%. Eurozone finance ministers have refused to extend the bailout.

Questioned on whether the referendum would be a euro-drachma dilemma, Greece's finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, said that European Treaties make provisions for an exit from the EU but do not make any provisions for an exit from the Eurozone. A referendum as a choice involving exit from the Eurozone would violate EU Treaties and EU Law.[59]

Theorized effects on world economies[edit]

Effect upon the European economy[edit]

Claudia Panseri, head of equity strategy at Société Générale, speculated in late May 2012 that eurozone stocks could plummet up to 50 percent in value if Greece makes a disorderly exit from the eurozone.[60]Bond yields in other European nations could widen 1 percent point to 2 percent points, negatively affecting their ability to service their own sovereign debts.[60]

Effect upon the world economy[edit]

Europe in 2010 accounted for 25 percent of world trade, according to Deutsche Bank.[60] Economic depression within the European economy would ripple worldwide and slow global growth.[60] However, Greece represents just a small fraction—less than 2 per cent—of European gross domestic product (GDP).

Legality[edit]

A working paper published by the European Central Bank concluded:[61]

… that negotiated withdrawal from the EU would not be legally impossible even prior to the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, and that unilateral withdrawal would undoubtedly be legally controversial; that, while permissible, a recently enacted exit clause is, prima facie, not in harmony with the rationale of the European unification project and is otherwise problematic, mainly from a legal perspective; that a Member State's exit from EMU, without a parallel withdrawal from the EU, would be legally inconceivable; and that, while perhaps feasible through indirect means, a Member State's expulsion from the EU or EMU, would be legally next to impossible.

In the absence of any ruling by the European Court of Justice, the question of whether a country can unilaterally leave the Eurozone without leaving the EU is unclear. The Williams Stamps Farish Professor in Law at the University of Texas School of Law has suggested that under certain conditions, it is possible for a Member State to do so.[62]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ abEconomist Who Coined ‘Grexit’ Now Says Greece Will Stay in Euro. By Flavia Krause-Jackson. Bloomberg Business, 28 June 2015
  2. ^ abA year in a word: Grexit. By Ralph Atkins. Financial Times, 23 December 2012
  3. ^ ab"‚Grexit' - Wer hat's erfunden?". citifirst.com. 
  4. ^""SNB kann die Zinsen auf minus 5 Prozent senken"". 1 September 2015 – via Handelszeitung. 
  5. ^"Grexit – What does Grexit mean?". Gogreece.about.com. 10 April 2012. Retrieved 16 May 2012. 
  6. ^Buiter, Willem and Ebrahim Rahbari (6 February 2012). "Rising Risks of Greek Euro Area Exit"(PDF). Citigroup. Archived from the original(PDF) on 30 May 2012. Retrieved 17 May 2012. 
  7. ^lefigaro.fr 18. February 2015: À quoi ressemblerait la sortie de l'euro de la Grèce
  8. ^sueddeutsche.de 4. March 2015: Tsipras will die Machtprobe – und wird sie verlieren. - Die Grundregel der Finanzmarkt-Kommunikation in Krisenzeiten lautet: Klappe halten. Doch Athen tut alles, um seine hilfsbereiten Euro-Partner zu verprellen. Der Austritt Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion steht bevor.
  9. ^Deutsche Welle: «Ο Βαρουφάκης πρέπει να παρουσιάσει έργο»
  10. ^spiegel.de 7. März 2015: Interview mit Alexis Tsipras Zitat: SPIEGEL: Many experts now fear a "Graccident"—Greece's accidental exit from the euro. If the ECB doesn't agree to your T-Bills, that's exactly what might happen. Tspiras: I cannot imagine that. People won't risk Europe's disintegration over a T-Bill of almost €1.6 billion.
  11. ^Paul Kirby (27 June 2015). "Greek debt crisis: Is Grexit inevitable?". BBC News. Retrieved 29 June 2015.  
  12. ^Paul Kirby (27 June 2015). "Greek debt crisis: Is Grexit inevitable?". BBC News. Retrieved 1 July 2015.  
  13. ^"Greek debt crisis: Banks to remain shut all week". BBC News. 29 June 2015. Retrieved 29 June 2015. 
  14. ^ abIMF admits mistakes on Greece bailout BBC News, Business, 5 June 2013
  15. ^IMF concedes it made mistakes on Greece M. Steves and I. Talley, The Wall Street Journal, Europe, 5 June 2013
  16. ^ abGreece:Staff report on request for stand-by arrangement IMF, Country report No. 10/110 (2010)
  17. ^Breaking Greece P. Krugman, The Conscience of a Liberal, The New York Times, 25 June 2015
  18. ^OECD, National Accounts of OECD Countries detailed tables 2006-2013, Volume 2014/2
  19. ^Xypolia, Ilia (May 2012). "Sorry, folks..the wake is over". London Progressive Journal. Retrieved 15 October 2012. 
  20. ^"Huge Sense of Doom Among 'Grexit' Predictions". CNBC. 14 May 2012. Retrieved 17 May 2012. 
  21. ^Ross, Alice (14 May 2012). "Grexit and the euro: an exercise in guesswork". Financial Times. Retrieved 16 May 2012. 
  22. ^Boot, Alexander (14 May 2012). "From 'Grexit' to 'Spain in the neck': It's time for puns, neologisms and break-ups". Daily Mail. London. Retrieved 16 May 2012. 
  23. ^"Grexit Greek Exit From The Euro". Maxfarquar.com. 14 May 2012. Archived from the original on 3 October 2012. Retrieved 16 May 2012. 
  24. ^Heath, Allister (14 May 2012). "Grexit will happen much more quickly than politicians think". City A.M. Retrieved 16 May 2012. 
  25. ^Louise Armitstead (23 June 2011). "EU accused of 'head in sand' attitude to Greek debt crisis". The Telegraph. London. Retrieved 24 September 2011. 
  26. ^Apps, Peter (20 May 2012). "Birth of new Greek drachma would be pained, rushed". Reuters. Archived from the original on 30 May 2012. Retrieved 30 May 2012. 
  27. ^ abcRandow, Jana; Thesing, Gabi (23 May 2012). "War-Gaming Greek Euro Exit Shows Hazards in 46-Hour Weekend". Bloomberg News. Archived from the original on 30 May 2012. Retrieved 30 May 2012. 
  28. ^"Who, What, Why: How would Greece switch currencies?". BBC News. 11 June 2012. 
  29. ^ abFirzli, M. Nicolas (1 March 2010). "Greece and the EU Debt Crisis". The Vienna Review. Vienna. Archived from the original on 31 May 2012. Retrieved 30 January 2015. 
  30. ^ abcdePeter Spiegel, "Inside Europe's Plan Z", Financial Times, 14 May 2014
  31. ^ abcdefghHadjicostis, Menelaos (25 May 2012). "Greece's euro exit a recipe for hardship". The Hamilton Spectator. Archived from the original on 30 May 2012. Retrieved 30 May 2012. 
  32. ^"Greek youths are getting ready to cry out,". grreporter.info. 
  33. ^Wallop, Harry (29 May 2012). "De La Rue silent on deal to print Drachma". The Daily Telegraph. London. Archived from the original on 31 May 2012. Retrieved 31 May 2012. 
  34. ^"Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide"Archived 18 January 2013 at the Wayback Machine. full text
  35. ^Tagaris, Karolina (29 May 2012). "Biggest Greek bank warns of dire euro exit fallout". Reuters. Archived from the original on 30 May 2012. Retrieved 30 May 2012. 
  36. ^Ο Alexis Tsipras στο CNN. YouTube. 17 May 2012. 
  37. ^"Clear lead for SYRIZA in Public Issue poll; support for euro at 71%". phantis.com. Archived from the original on 6 July 2015. Retrieved 13 July 2015. 
  38. ^BBC News report 15 June 2012 – "Greek election is euro versus drachma, Samaras says"
  39. ^"The day after the elections the KKE will be at the forefront of the struggles". Communist Party of Greece. 10 January 2015. Retrieved 5 July 2015. 
  40. ^ (in Greek). Golden Dawn. Retrieved 3 November 2013. 
  41. ^"In crisis-ridden Europe, euroscepticism is the new cultural trend". 10 October 2012. Retrieved 25 October 2013. 
  42. ^"Greece crisis: Syriza rebels form new party". 21 August 2015 – via www.bbc.com. 
  43. ^"Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable", BBC News, 8 February 2015
  44. ^Jon Stone, "Tory grandee Ken Clarke warns euro exit is 'inevitable' as Greece's supporters rally in London", The Independent, 15 February 2015
  45. ^Cameron told EU leader Greek exit from euro may be best option A. Nardelli and N. Watt, The Guardian, Politics, 26 June 2015
  46. ^ abcNomura slams the IMF: The Greek bailout is highly unrealistic O. Williams-Grut, Business Insider, Finance, 15 July 2015
  47. ^IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief A. Evans-Pritchard, The Daily Telegraph, 14 July 2015
  48. ^"Germany Does Care About a Greek Exit". 2015-01-05. Retrieved 2015-01-06. 
  49. ^ abWagstyl, Stefan (2015-01-05). "Angela Merkel faces growing dilemma over Greece". Financial Times. Retrieved 2015-01-07. 
  50. ^O'Brien, James (2015-01-05). "MEPs criticise German 'interference' in Greek elections". The Parliament Magazine. Retrieved 2015-01-07. 
  51. ^Alderman, Liz (2015-01-05). "Euro Countries Take Tough Line Toward Greece". New York Times. Retrieved 2015-01-07. 
  52. ^http://www.ftse.com/products/indices/grexit
  53. ^"UK plans for possible Greek euro exit". BBC News. 11 February 2015. 
  54. ^Svenja O'Donnell (10 February 2015). "G-20 Finance Ministers Urge Greek Aid Deal to Avoid Euro Region Splinter". Bloomberg.com. 
  55. ^Dow Jones Newswires Russia Fin Min: Could Only Provide Greece With Rubles If Athens Asks 10 February 2015
  56. ^"Greek euro exit risk raised by Commerzbank as talks break down — Business — ekathimerini.com". ekathimerini.com. Retrieved 13 July 2015. 
  57. ^Geoffrey Smith / Fortune. "Greece and Eurozone Dance on the Precipice". Time. 
  58. ^

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